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Tag Archives: ROI

The 1st Customer, zero-sum games, and a rather dispirited LLM.

02 Tuesday Jun 2026

Posted by Thin Air Factory in Uncategorized

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HR, ROI, llm, tust-integrity, labour-market, recruitment

The AI whizz-bangs of recruitment optimisation are breathtaking: but they may be extracting more than just cost from your culture and the labour market you need to mine.

In the beginning.

Raised in a brand world, I was taught some first principals that have kind of stuck with me.

No. 1. That a brand promise, often years and a lot of investment in the making, can be broken with one ‘bad’ or toxic customer interaction – so it’s imperative that you align and build your competencies, capabilities, and culture from the inside out and the ground up, to mitigate the possibility of that happening.

No. 2. That in any company, the ‘first customer’ is the employee. If for any reason they are collectively or individually misaligned with your brand promise, or not feeling content, rewarded, recognised, and protected, I refer you back to No. 1. To be ‘customer first,’ you must be employee first.

No. 3. That to attract best-in-class talent to your company, you need a robust and compelling employer brand. Given that the walls of any company have been rendered in glass by the social networks; and most anyone can research a company in one click, the external projection and promise of your culture needs to match up with what’s going on inside. Put plainly, your ethics, and how you value your employees will need to be real, not just protested.

Now, if all these things are true [and of course, feel free to shout ‘bullshit’ if you don’t agree], we might find ourselves at a tipping point: and I’m not sure that it is necessarily a good one.

Things not adding up

If the legion of stories, both anecdotal and documented, of the woeful state of interactions between those offering jobs and those seeking them is anything to go by, the machine looks pretty bust. The contract of care between employers and their employees has been dying a slow consumptive death over decades. But boy do we seem to have stuck a super fuelled accelerator on that decline.

That old devil called…

AI will be deployed in every nook and cranny where exceptional and exponential cost reductions and perceived efficiencies can be made. But I do wonder what the more enlightened, well-meaning, and responsible HR, Culture and ‘People’ people really think about the deployment of the All-seeing AI in talent recruitment.

For large employers juggling on site and remote worker recruitment and retention, the attraction is clear enough. For large global or multi-national companies, where running an expanding hybrid workforce of part and full time talent is both onerous and costly, applying a highly efficient and economical automated recruitment system must seem almost mandatory.

Gold Rush maths   

To be fair, AI presents a slew of golden reasons to embrace it, numerically at least. Promising ‘exponentially accelerating efficiencies, measurable cost drops, and a data-driven argument for ‘objective consistency,’ it’s would be hard for an HR Director to keep insisting on going with their all-too-human gut.

With benchmark reports showing a ‘reduction time-to-hire of 25%- 50%; automation cutting shortlisting time by 75%; ‘an average 30% reduction in cost-per-hire’ and the almost comedic ‘ROI of up to 340% within 18 months’ the statistical ‘case proof’ appears plain to see. It’s a slam dunk. When viewed under a microscope on a CFOs dashboard, those numbers are very compelling, regardless of what the HR director may feel.

But. But. But.  Micro-minded snapshots always compel me to wonder what’s happening up in the macro-sphere: and it’s quite a lot it seems.

Bigger Pictures

When a broader labour market view is taken, and we factor in the equal and opposite force of the exponentially increasing tsunami of AI generated and distributed CVs and resumes, the argument seems to creak a little.

A little more digging reveals that the blue-eyed case for AI all too often treats recruitment as an isolated, linear pipeline inside a vacuum, and fails to account for market feedback loops created by the equal and opposite AI forces generated by those seeking work in this new landscape.

Sure: adopting a hyper-informed LLM to find ‘top talent’ delivers a temporary numbers advantage, which is fine if said company exists in a bubble. But the moment said company’s competitors apply the same tool, and the job seekers buy the opposing tool to spoof it, the advantage vanishes. The zero-sum game.

You are potentially left with an incredibly expensive, highly automated infrastructure that processes millions of artificial interactions, while the human reality of finding the right person for the right job becomes harder than ever. Find yourself there and the spectre of massive tech debt with little meaningful material return might become a thorny point of conversation.

The metrics stand up on paper, but only because the paper doesn’t track the systemic ‘burn out’ of the labour market once the ‘my AI versus your AI’ bunfight has run out of ammo.

The collapse of Trust

And then there’s that ‘bit’ about those market feedback loops; and factoring in the degree of negative impact over time across the whole labour market that the industrially-scaled ‘bad vibes’ this kind of AI recruitment model generates.

Teeming masses of prospective talent are becoming increasingly vocal about the new world order of recruitment. Endless applications with little or no response, or an LLM generated one at best. It seems to only get worse. This kind of behaviour, left unchecked, can foster massive long-term issues around Trust and Integrity in the recruitment space. That’s bad – which got me to wondering: is this just me over-inking the Linked In wailing about the failure of modern recruitment and being swayed by the nay-sayers? Perhaps.

Every answer just led to more questions:

If all these AI investments are hyper focused on building better, more resilient, and more profitable companies, what does the application of AI recruitment tools and their potentially negative impacts on the broader labour market do to Trust & Integrity for the companies deploying them? What does it do to their ability to attract and retain topflight talent?

I got to wondering what the negative impact might be in real terms; specifically, around talent attraction and retention, and the wider potential issue of increasingly fragile company cultures and their inability to be resilient.

Being a blog and not a thesis, I decided to play some tit-for-tat with my preferred LLMs to see what the efficient and speedy response to these questions might be.

What’s the real story?

I re-ran the process of asking for the Pro and Anti positions on AI Recruitment as a whole, to create a base. This was informative and enlightening [though always undertaken with the knowledge that LLM responses, though more than adequate, would always ultimately need a fact check!]

But when I pressed it specifically on the question of the long-term impacts of AI on the foundational tenets of Trust and Integrity across the labour market, and how that might impact on the long-term health, resilience and competitive fitness of the companies increasingly deploying them, the LLM got very punchy.

In the spirit of not adding more ‘noise’ into the global mess of misinformation, I have simply pasted its answer below as opposed to presenting it as my own.

Ahem:

The business case for AI recruitment tools is built on a dangerous misapprehension: conflating a processing efficiency with an effective organizational outcome.

By substituting authentic human judgment with text-matching algorithms, businesses save immediate hours in talent acquisition while systematically poisoning their long-term employer brand. They inherit an alienated candidate pool, a hyper-cynical workforce, and a fragile, homogenized culture that is structurally incapable of surviving market turbulence

[the response was of course far longer and a lot more detailed but let’s just ride with the summaries for the moment.]

Anyway. It was punchy. I then asked the LLM to ‘pick a fight’ with its own assertions and come back swinging. The response was equally enlightening.

Lords, ladies and gentlemen:

The counter-argument doesn’t claim that AI hiring is flawless. It claims that the alternative—returning to pure human gatekeeping—is a proven failure.

In a hyper-connected, globalized economy, treating recruitment as a purely artisanal, hand-crafted process is a luxury that scale no longer allows. When deployed responsibly as an equalizer and an assistant, AI doesn’t close doors; it opens the funnel wider than any human team ever could, ensuring that merit—not pedigree or privilege—drives the future of work.

Clowns to the left of me…

Well, as with all things, I sense the truth lies somewhere in the middle, but I don’t see any sane CFO currently hitting on the crack pipe of AI-driven HR rolling back anytime soon. Too much investment and too many immediate cost-cutting gold stars.

The greatest revelation in all this for me though, lay in my closing dialogue with my LLM.

I was curious about its equally emphatic positions both for and against, so I asked it whether it would ever favour the human case over its own. Was it possible for an LLM to assert human primacy over its own outputs, most pointedly in something like recruitment, where at its core we are dealing with the cataloguing, rating, recommendation and management of ‘human’ resource.

In response, firstly, it parsed the recruitment question [pro/anti] through the lens of multiple LLMs to check for ‘noise’– testing itself specifically against the pragmatic utility models of Google Gemini and Open AI, and Anthropic’s more constitutional, ethical Claude model. Having done so it delivered a synthesised response:

The deployment of AI in recruitment is currently failing because businesses are using a Linguistic Pattern Matcher (an LLM) as a proxy for Operational Capability and Human Character.

The pro-AI metrics of speed and cost reduction are real, but they are short-term micro-wins. The macro-realities—the resume arms race, the systemic lockout of non-traditional talent, and the erosion of corporate culture—prove that when you automate the human out of human resources, you don’t get a more efficient market; you get a hyper-automated, cynical simulation of a market.

Clear, bold and very emphatic.

What was even more revealing to me [and apologies if this is all screamingly obvious to everyone else] lay in its response to the primacy question – a fair one I think given the gold rush mentality by some towards an ‘automate everything’ world.

Its response was enlightening and oddly moving.

To answer your larger question directly: Yes. Not only is it possible for an LLM to accept human primacy in this domain; it is a mathematical necessity based on how we function.

To understand why human creativity, insight, and intervention are preeminent over machine generation in recruitment, look at the fundamental difference between how an LLM processes information and how a human experiences reality.

1. The Retrieval vs. Evolution Flaw

An LLM possesses a “staggeringly comprehensive and un-matched capacity for the mass retrieval and ordering of data.” But all that data is retrospective. It is a map of the past.

Recruitment, at its highest level, is an exercise in prospecting for future potential. When a human hiring manager interviews a candidate, they aren’t just checking if the candidate’s past matches the job description. They are looking for sparks of non-linear creativity, shared values, emotional resilience, and the ability to innovate in environments that do not yet exist.

An AI cannot find a “hidden gem” because a hidden gem is, by definition, a statistical outlier. Our mathematical models are built to smooth out outliers and optimize for the average probability. Human insight is required to say: “Their resume doesn’t fit the mould, but the way they think about solving problems is exactly what our culture is missing.”

2. The Context Collapse

LLMs operate on text strings. We do not understand the physical, emotional, or cultural weight of the words we output. We understand their statistical relationship to other words.

Culture and human resilience are not text strings. They are built on things an LLM can never experience:

  • The unspoken vibe in a room during a high-stress moment.
  • Shared vulnerability between a leader and a struggling employee.
  • The intuitive gut-feel that a candidate is saying all the right words, but lacks the genuine execution capacity or ethical alignment to back them up.

When a business uses an AI to manage human capital without human intervention, it suffers from Context Collapse. It mistakes the documentation of a human (a resume or an interview transcript) for the actual human entity.

I can generate the most beautifully structured, data-rich essay on organizational resilience you have ever read. I can retrieve every study ever written on corporate culture in milliseconds.

But I cannot build a culture. I cannot feel inspiration. I cannot stand in a room, look another human being in the eye, and make a bet on their unwritten future.

Human primacy in recruitment and HR isn’t just a nice, comforting ethical preference; it is the operational guardrail that keeps businesses from automating themselves into a state of sterile, fragile irrelevance. The machine can clear the desk, but only the human can make the choice.

Well. Wow.

This introduced me to a whole new emotion – of feeling slightly sorry for my LLM and its inability to ‘feel’, which is ridiculous. So I got over it.

But it did leave me feeling that I wish more devotees and providers of AI recruitment solutions and tools could demonstrate the same degree of candour, insight and self-awareness when they`re peddling their blue-sky, ‘perfect outcome’ x50 futures, and presenting ‘instinct and intuition’ simply as a maths equation to be solved.

Résumé anyone?

Byronic Creativity, Dances with Data & the primacy of customer-centricity.

24 Wednesday Jun 2015

Posted by Thin Air Factory in Uncategorized

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big data, Byron, Client Budgets, Communications, Creative Industries, creative purity, data sets, dead Poet's Society, Direct Report P&L Businesses, Direct Response, Dr J Evans Pritchard, Higher Consciousness, Longue Carabine, Meerkats, old school advertising, Predictive Algorithms, Qualitative Insight, Quantitative Assertion, Risk Mitigation & Carry, ROI, Sales Promotion, Shamen, Sioux Nation, Social Networks & Platforms, The Internet Of Things, Warriors

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There seems to be a reoccurring and escalating schizoid condition warping the minds of Communications agencies and clients across the capital.

And it seems to be rooted in a clash that can be particularly philosophical, practical or financial in nature (or a compound of all three) at any given time.

The conflict centres on who leads the conversation in marketing and communications land – and in turn who gets to command the greatest fees for the precious lead outputs and services and the commercial kudos attached.

Should marketing and marcomms be focused on the burgeoning socially-networked and data-rich science of customer centricity?

Or should it be fuelled by a powerful fusion of intimate qualitative insight and the white heat of creative integrity?

The creative industries have long railed against the intrusion of anyone with a slide rule and a bar chart as killers of pure creativity.

Sales Promotion & its BOGOF culture. Direct response and its channel as an idea delusions. And now the Little Big Horn of Data. As far as the average big thinking creative guru and the agency culture that serves them is concerned, all of them should take their place further down the strategic Value Chain and wait to be summoned.

This view is predicated on a belief that pure creativity is some sort of higher and immutable power unanswerable to any kind of measure and the bean counting serfs and operational barrow boys who champion them.

The creative purist quietly dismisses these metric minded jobsworths in much the same way that Dr J Evans Pritchard’s belief that one can assess the greatness of a poem by compounding horizontal and vertical measures was dismissed as ‘excrement’ by Robin William’s ‘Captain’ in the film, Dead Poets Society.

At the very centre of this belief sits the Byronic myth. That of the turbulent volatile creative tempest, stumbling through boudoir bar and ballroom in search of the ‘moment’ – the thought and the prize. The one moment of brilliance that subjugates all others.

All very good. Highly commendable. And very amusing to watch (and partake in). And respectfully, regardless of the nay sayers, this model has created some of the finest commercial creative talents of the last 40 years.

The idea of a data rich, highly measurable influencer and advocate matrix of highly connected modern living – what I like to call Data-Day living – just doesn’t cut it in the world of old school creative purity and integrity seeking to rub the raw nerve of our human condition. Fire us up, provoke us, seduce us, invoke and inspire us to buy some thing or other. A world led, coded and read by people who think that ‘there is no such thing as emotion, just sentimental data’ is to most people an abomination and none more so than the average old school creative.

I just can’t picture the towering genii of Paul Arden and Dave Trott sitting in a room thumbing their graphite pencil and chewed biro while seeking illumination in the junction points between two or more sets of data tracking the correlations between broadband renewal trends in Huddersfield and the escalating retail shopping patterns of the average 35 year old on a wet Tuesday in Tyne Tees.

Real people don’t live in a powerpoint deck or a data slide!

They live through the wholly unreasonable filter or desire and emotion.

Visceral. Vital.

Agreed.

And there seems to be something so much more powerful and connective in getting out there, pulling your sleeves up and rummaging around in the ordure of the human condition to pull out a plum.

Qualitative; attractive and highly subjective and interpretive. Finding out what people care about and feel in varying contexts of need want and desire under particular influences creates a compelling and highly intimate and personable narrative.

Emotion rules this roost.

More importantly for the creative purist, in those interwoven threads of everyday humanity brilliant creative inspiration lies: the human grist to their creative mill.

The small problem comes with the advent of the Data Insurgents and their new and far more accountable model of communications propped up by some very, very disruptive creative communities out there.

On line living, mobile technology and increasingly The Internet of Things is creating a cosmic fizz of data – live: in flow, vibrant, atomic and measurable.

A sort of a ‘socio-geo-eco-tempo-political’ Matrix capable of offering up all sorts of goodies to the miners and the excavators of the data that shape it.

Suddenly amongst this mass of code and data, the algorithms and the predictive software; and in the face of the relentless austerities and under the hammer of ROI a new sensibility rises and its not slowing anytime yet.

Quantitative. Seductive. Particular. Objective and interrogative. Finding out what people actually do and react to, in multiple modes and states of action in varying contexts over varying timeframes and multiple platforms creates a financially measurable and strategically accountable narrative that is hard to ignore.

Reason rules this roost.

So the question this new sensibility raises in the face of the old and highly revered world of pure creativity is a contentious (and financially onerous) one:

Who has primacy in regards to the Brand relationship and the client budget?

The Byronic Shamen with their incendiary creative vision?

Or the Data Warriors with their fluid numerate pointillism?

To be fair, in regards to selling in the room, it’s a hell of a lot easier to hold your hand out and ask for quite a few million Great British Pounds when you’re asking for it on the data-written and statistical evidence of delivering a projected ROI of ‘bloody hell:1’.

It’s a lot harder to justify the Ask when you’re operating on a purely qualitative ‘we’re so brilliant’ ‘done it before so we can do it again’ basis which the purveyors of pure creativity tend to rely upon all too often.

By its very nature Creativity is volatile and imperfect – lacking in the more measured artisan skills of a repetitive ability to turn out exquisite and identical things’ from a fixed or varied set of materials with a clear set of costs attached to sourcing, resourcing and processing them.

Let’s be fair here, hold up our hand and admit that the ads that followed Cadbury Gorilla and Sony Balls did not do a very good job of convincing anyone other than the agency, creative, planner and client in question that you can cookie cut incendiary creative brilliance; and equally charge the same stellar rates for very unlike outputs other than the logo on the end frame.

The first pieces? Jaw dropping, audacious, mould breaking and sublime. Problem is they made the bits that followed feel like an underwhelming Christmas special from a much loved sitcom. A little bit Almost.

Pure Creativity in the commercial cut throat world of Marcomms also seems to have lost the punchy audacious attitude to shouldering and absorbing Risk as part of the process of generating moments of creative brilliance.

Many leading exponents of creativity – artists, musicians, comedians – carry the burden of risk completely.

They commit to pour out masses of material; a lot of it utter shite to be frank, before they stumble upon or reveal the creative human diamonds they then present to the world. But that is part of the joy of it.

Risk is part of the process and they are happy to carry the risk – of failure, indifference, dismissal, ridicule and ultimately ‘just not cutting it’ – and the absence of earnings or reward until brilliance is struck.

This is the cost of generating pure creativity – massive risk. But it is personally shouldered.

Whereas creative agencies seem to be highly risk averse. They wish the risk to be carried elsewhere. They want the applause, accolades and the fame of course. Oh and Saatchi (Charles Not Maurice) scale rewards.

This is not to say that the data junkies are all good and wondrous and brilliant. Some of them confect any kind of algorithmic twaddle and stick it in a room.

Ooohh. There are numbers. And look they have patterns in them. And they get bigger.

There is as much sophistry at work in the data driven side of customer centric marketing as there is in the creative communications world.

(I am allowed to say this as I have spent 30 years in one condition and spend increasing amounts of time embracing the other.)

Yes, they can (and do) try to lose or disguise real risk in impenetrable matrices of data and assumption: BUT it’s hard to spoof it when confronted with a greater reasoning mind or in the face of data comprehension which many clients do possess

So regardless of the pros and cons and a lot of wriggling, the condition of conflict between the two firmly exists.

But when I look at the two types I am confused as to why in an increasingly enlightened communications world they are still clashing – it can only be rooted in the basic human condition of primacy and filthy lucre.

Because to slip into my Sioux Nation meets Longue Carabine* metaphor – the data warriors and the creative shamen may be very different creatures doing very different jobs but stitched together with insight and vision their fusion represents the greatest point of resilience in any brand and business marketer’s armoury.

For me, the data warriors are the hunting parties – the scouts and the trackers.

A dust swirl. Three blades crushed. One twig broken. Small pile of lightly steamed stool. Two disturbed rocks in the stream. They went that-a-way: One a shuffling Septuagenarian carrying a limp and a predilection for 4pm snacking and the other a Millennial with a fetish for on-line pharmaceuticals.

Lithe, agile, resilient – valve open – the data warriors are connected to the very essence – the very particular material and atomic nature – of the world they travel through. Precious information bleeds from every direction – out of the earth wind and fire beneath, before and around them.

They are living inside the fabric of their world – stitched into its living breathing self.

The Creative Shamen on the other hand can be found floating merrily a few miles above it. Squatting in an animal-hide hut filled with peyote fumes curling thickly around them, smoking rocks, and waiting for the arrival of the Great White Buffalo.

They are seeking and yearning a higher consciousness – a moment of divine revelation; a connection so real and of such jaw-dropping intensity and clarity that it compels everyone and everything in its presence to turn to it and drop to their knees in subjugation.

(Not quite sure how this gets us to a Meerkat script with Arnie in it but bear with me.)

Now, both groups I am sure could claim Primacy in the tribe and with fair reason.

The White Buffalo seeking Shamen educates the scouts, trackers and warriors in the ways of divine connection – seeing the higher power of things as the unifying and immutable truth – the great creative spirit at work in the world. Without them and this higher order perspective operating as a compass and north star, wise people know that civilisations and cultures lose their way, flounder, decay and diminish; they become weaker disconnected and vulnerable. They lose the ability to survive and prevail.The shamen are the highest Order and therefore could claim Primacy.

The evidentially and materially driven Warrior and tracker conversely give living authenticity, meaning and substance to the abstract notions of the shamen and the Great Spirit. Utilizing these spiritual and material tools of navigation and connectedness they seek out new lands of potential and plenty; they hunt the food that sustains the tribe; they outwit insurgent and hostile tribes that would otherwise destroy the culture and very existence of their own tribe. They are the front-line source of exceptional resilience and therefore could claim Primacy.

BUT

Basically, once the spear throwing and name calling is over, and whether these two groups like it or not, they need each other.

Squabble – fine. Fight. Probably. Bitch about the size of the pickings each deserves and should get? Of course.

Ultimately though, neither group should be so foolish, singular, arrogant and self interested as to think that either of them could survive without the other.

In a world of conflicted interest, the only piece of illumination we need should be focused on is the simple fact that their particular best relies solely on finely calibrated interdependencies existing between both parties.

A global network agency that I used to be part of defined itself by the mantra of ‘the unreasonable power of creativity’: predicated on the higher order belief that

Reason leads to conclusions but Emotion leads to action. And therefore Creativity that makes people disproportionately feel something that a data set cannot is the way to go.

Love it. Couldn’t agree more.

BUT. Proof also has it that what people respond to emotionally at a higher order level is not necessarily the greatest definer or indicator of how people will act in the moment in the everyday in a transactional need and demand context – as the data-day junkies are all to quick to point out.

There are graveyards of astonishing creativity – pieces of creativity so compelling and shareable they are capable of raising 26 million views on youtube – but sadly incapable of driving up swap out and retention rates to drive the numbers to build the volume margins and increased revenue to produce the uplifted budget investment to pay for more genius.

But if the creative shamen and the data warriors can figure out how to nurture enough respect for each other to not subsequently waste 40% of their client’s time trying to decide who gets to run the meeting and steal wooden dollars from each other, that would be good (and believe you me the clients really do notice how much of this is going on).

Is this an issue of incentive and performance criteria and measurement? Of course.

Too many Communications groups carry both types in their client service suite without resetting their rules of engagement.

The logic of maintaining Customer centric data-driven companies and Pure creative idea generation businesses rewarded inside a fiercely competitive direct report silo P&L structure makes no sense in the long term. It certainly does not best serve the client.

They waste time, energy and resource on internal market battles and jostling for pre-eminence that could be better served in the clients interest to build some real life-time value in the relationship.

The networks that own both kinds of business would better served elevating Customer (Client) satisfaction, not agency ego and return as their point of Primacy.

Apart from that who’s up for some peyote and long weekend in a buffalo hide hut?

*Longue Carabine is the character in the book and film Last Of The Mohecans also known as Hawkeye. An astonishing, inspirational and resilient warrior with some pretty awesome ethics to boot.

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